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The Strategic Stakes
The Internet in 1990. Online banking in 1996. Social media in 2005. – What do these moments in time have in common? Back then the adoption rate of the respective technology was at 3% of the general population. Today, Bitcoin sits at the same level of adoption according to a recent study by River: 3% of the general population. We are so early.
If you are old enough, do you remember the talk about these new “Internet companies” in the 1990s? Today a company without a web presence or some digital offering does not survive except in the most localized settings. By implication, every company is an internet company today. The same will happen to today’s “Bitcoin companies” (or “Bitcoiners” for that matter).
Instant global communication and access to vast amounts of information for billions of people… While the internet is a milestone in the development of the human race, one aspect of using it always felt alien: making financial transactions. An internet-native payment system that seamlessly integrates into the TCP/IP protocol was missing. Until Bitcoin emerged as this digital-native money.
Given above time lines, it should take at least a decade or two until Bitcoin is as omnipresent as social media and the internet today are. While I am unclear as to the future successors of ‘social media’ and ‘online banking’ – I am certain the internet base protocol will remain more or less the same (maybe we will finally get the upgrade to IPv6 everywhere).
The same will be true for Bitcoin. I have no clue what integrations will be built on top of it; for example, to support the renewable energy transformation or autonomous AI systems. But I know the Bitcoin base chain will function on the same principles as it does today. Because, in addition to the Internet’s literal network effects, Bitcoin exhibits economic incentives that will keep it stable and resilient.
Bank of America Global Research released a long-term chart outlining 1,000 years of technological disruption, highlighting Bitcoin as one of the most consequential innovations in recent history.
But Bitcoin as money is just the tip of the iceberg.
Bitcoin is more than better money
Bitcoin will not only impact us by being superior digital money. It will permeate society in many different ways beyond finance as it operates at the intersection of technology, economics, energy, policy, human rights and possibly more domains.
Consider the following scenario for the typical, generic journey, a person passes through in understanding Bitcoin more deeply:
- A typical entry point for most people is to realize how fiat currency works and the fatal role it plays in economies everywhere. This learning can take quite a lot of time. If you have not yet spent time on what the problem of broken money is, I recommend watching these videos (first beginner, second advanced level) to get you started before reading on. After all, how to assess a solution if you have not understood the problem?
- Then, with fresh eyes, you may start understanding how and why the fiat currency system is failing large swaths of the population in countries across the world. You will understand its unfair design and also, that all nations are using the same basic monetary mechanisms, including the one you reside in. Money is a global justice issue.
- Then you may start to be really interested why Bitcoin functions differently to fiat currency. You continue to learn about mining and proof-of-work. You will understand the energy needed for network security and also the positive role mining can play – if we embrace it – on the much needed energy transition.
- Then, you may start seeing why even nation states have started to devise strategies and policy around Bitcoin. El Salvador and Bhutan are just two examples. (Yes, the US as well, but I’m cautious: unfortunately loud and unpredictable Orange Man does what he can to distract from silent but predictable Orange Coin).
- Then, with nation states departing from USD-based fiat dogma, you may start seeing the geopolitical implications of Bitcoin: US-Dollar hegemony and the mounting challenge by China/BRICS to break free, the quiet orange revolutions happening bottom-up across Latin America and Africa, and also the Digital Euro solo action in the EU. Do you think it is easier to finance wars with fiat currency or with Bitcoin?
- Finally, this may even trigger you to develop an interest in how the technology of Bitcoin can protect Bitcoin from all these powerful influences. How can we ensure that the open source code is not hijacked? How can we onboard billions of people on what people call “Layer-2” technology? What about privacy in all that? Oh, and what about AI?
By 2040, it will be deeply entrenched into society – or it will be dead. (However, the death scenario has more implications than you might think. The incidents necessary to stop Bitcoin will have severe side effects nobody of us wants.)
Bitcoin will touch every policy domain – like the Internet does today. If not by virtue of being digital money then by a combination of some of these other properties touched on in the journey above.
We need dedicated exploration of the Bitcoin ecosystem and its linkages to the rest of society for several reasons. One, after sixteen years people still do have very different views on Bitcoin. People surely can have any opinion they want. However, for a piece of software that has NOT changed much since inception, it is hard to understand why we do not have a majority view after one-and-a-half decades? I am not talking about people disagreeing on Bitcoin being a good idea or not. They already disagree about WHAT it is in the first place!
This makes it very hard to make decisions about what to do with Bitcoin.
Why focus on Bitcoin? Because Bitcoin ≠ crypto ≠ blockchain.
Bitcoin is most relevant if you are seeking long-term certainty:
Largest and most relevant peer-to-peer network by far
The only one touching different parts of society beyond finance
No leadership team who can be attacked, censored, silenced or, most likely, be co-opted
No pre-mine distorting incentives
Consensus makes it very hard/impossible to change monetary policy
The SBI recommends that leaders should be careful not getting lured into believing that any cryptocurrency token is comparable or even a replacement for Bitcoin.
Let alone “blockchain”, which is just the name for a distributed storage technology that does not by itself exhibit any of the properties that make Bitcoin relevant: censorship resistance, immutability, resilience, etc.
This info box is too short. You need more background about how Bitcoin works vis-à-vis cryptocurrencies. So, I will detail this analysis out in a future post.
The Leader’s Dilemma
My bold claims about Bitcoin’s strategic stakes and entrenchment of society puts you, a decision-maker responsible for making strategic decisions for your organization, in a dilemma. Why?
Well, you may think I am making most of this up to impress you and other readers to create more demand for what the SBI offers? Maybe. But what is the risk of being wrong about this? If I am 50% wrong, is your organization prepared for 50% of the scenario laid out in the previous section?
On the other side, you may think there is something to the arguments and the trajectory, but you have a hard time to believe the above scenario because you lack good information to follow the logical steps in-between that I skipped in the scenario. That feels equally bad: if you want to prepare your organization for a world in which only 50% materialize, where should you start?
Maybe the topic of Bitcoin has not cropped up on your desk or in a board meeting yet. But what will you do when it does? Dismiss it? What if a partner/competitor starts engaging with Bitcoin. Should you get active then? Based on which strategic insight?
How do you prepare for that? As we have just seen, Bitcoin cannot be captured from one or two perspectives, like technology or finance. 16 years into Bitcoin and people are still not even close in agreeing what Bitcoin actually is and even less, what it could mean for your organization.
Like in other cases, leader may face decisions about Bitcoin without adequate knowledge. The difference is that decision about Bitcoin have bigger long-term consequences than most other decisions you make. I know, this is hard to accept. But then, back in the 1990s, what did you really think about the Internet? Something or nothing? If “something”, did you act on that insight?
What the River study says in other words: The 97% majority of leaders today lack broad and deep enough knowledge to make well-informed strategic decisions for their organizations with regard to Bitcoin. This knowledge gap represents an underestimated strategic risk that you do not even see today for the simple reason that you have not done the analysis work required.
Bitcoin intelligence is not about academic curiosity. In the light of above generic scenario, we consider Bitcoin intelligence a strategic imperative for every organization in the coming years.
Bitcoin Intelligence Domain and the SBI Fellowship
To conquer that complexity, the SBI identified six domains along which we intend to observe, analyze and understand the latest developments happening across the vast, increasingly multi-disciplinary Bitcoin landscape.
We were able to win a group of exceptional thinkers to spearhead this unique effort for the Swiss market and beyond – a group who will embark together on this daunting challenge to provide intelligence on the emerging impact of Bitcoin that is aggregated but still concrete enough to be actionable for decision-makers. So, with great pride we announce the inaugural SBI Fellowship members! Learn more about each individual here.
Dr. Luca Ferrarese and Yves-André Graf are covering Finance & Economics.
Bitcoin’s deflationary monetary model and corporate treasury experiments require strategic assessment as traditional fiat systems face structural challenges and central banks explore digital currencies.
Dr. Harald Rauter is covering Energy & Climate.
Bitcoin mining creates economic incentives for renewable energy development while providing grid stabilization services and monetizing stranded energy resources.
Dr. Marcus Dapp will be covering Global Adoption & Geopolitics.
National Bitcoin strategies are reshaping international trade, monetary dependencies, and geopolitical relationships as countries compete for mining infrastructure and strategic reserves.
Yves Bennaïm will be covering Strategy & Policy for Switzerland.
Switzerland’s Bitcoin regulatory framework will determine its competitiveness as a financial center and technology hub in the evolving Bitcoin economy.
Dr. Christian Decker and Markus Perdrizat will be covering Innovation & Technology.
Bitcoin’s layered technical architecture drives innovation in peer-to-peer systems, cryptography, and network security, creating opportunities for infrastructure development and technical advancement.
The SBI Fellowship does not pursue academic research (although the surprising lack of engagement in academic ‘Bitcoin Studies’ would warrant such an endeavor). Instead, we focus on actionable intelligence on the emerging role Bitcoin will play across nations, industries, and people.
It is not a coincidence, that we start the Bitcoin Institute and the Fellowship in Switzerland. As outlined here, we believe that Switzerland is uniquely positioned to become a pioneering country in the Bitcoin era. Switzerland is a innovative country with decentralized political power and consensus governance that is well-known for its core values of neutrality, sovereignty, liberty. Bitcoin fully shares all these values.
Bitcoin Intelligence, powered by SBI
The SBI will be offering strategic updates in two main formats.
- Intelligence Briefings. Our flagship strategic intelligence is delivered directly to decision-makers who need comprehensive Bitcoin insights without the time investment. Each briefing synthesizes complex developments across the core domains into actionable intelligence that informs your organization’s Bitcoin strategy.
- Intelligence Flash. Time-sensitive analysis of breaking Bitcoin developments that may demand swift attention from Swiss leaders. When significant events occur—regulatory shifts, major adoptions, or market disruptions—Intelligence Flash delivers the context and implications you need within hours, not days. This is your early-warning system for Bitcoin developments that could impact your strategic decisions.
Beyond these standardized formats, the SBI is prepared to produce bespoke analyses and formats according to the needs of your organization – and your client base, too! Would your clients benefit from Bitcoin expertise as a complement to your offering? Now is the right time to discuss new offerings that position your organization as an early mover in the Bitcoin space.
We are also building an executive learning program, about which I will report in the near future.
So, what?
Thank you for making it so far. How do you feel about the proposed scenario for Bitcoin? How high do you think the strategic stakes are? People usually disagree on the probability that we are moving into such a “Bitcoin World”. Where do you stand? Even if you think the probability is not high, will it be zero? And for the non-zero case: how much preparation is needed, for your organization, for you personally?
If you feel the need to understand this Bitcoin phenomenon better before dismissing it, we are happy to hear from you. No matter, which industry sector, knowledge level of your leadership team or yourself: if you think a conversation with an independent (but not neutral) institute focusing on all aspects of Bitcoin could help you make better decisions for your company, non-profit or government agency, send us a message and we will be happy to get in touch with you.
Please note: We will start with the inaugural first edition of our Bitcoin Intelligence Brief in one week on Tuesday, August 5, 2025.
Subscribe below to be in the loop from day one.
We, core team and fellows, are happy to have you with us on this journey!
Dr. Marcus M. Dapp, Founder SBI
